Climate change Natural Resource Management Pakistan

Multi-criteria decision analysis for selection of vulnerable districts: Transforming Indus Basin with climate resilient agriculture and water management

Modelling of climate change scenarios for Pakistan indicates that if agriculture and water management in the Indus River Basin continue in a ‘business as usual’ mode, the increase in temperatures and changes in precipitation will pose serious threats to the future livelihoods of farmers and to the Pakistani agricultural sector. In this context, FAO Pakistan has proposed a project to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) on “Transforming the Indus Basin with Climate Resilient Agriculture and Water Management”. This project is designed to change that by moving away from ‘business as usual’ in the Basin and shifting agriculture and water management to a new paradigm in which producers are successfully adapting to climate change and are able to sustain their livelihoods. The project objective is to transform agriculture in the Basin by increasing resilience among the most vulnerable farmers and strengthening the Government’s capacity to support their communities to adapt. To ensure the success of the project, an appropriate selection of districts for project interventions is a crucial factor. The Technical team at FAO has employed a detailed Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) technique using GIS for the selection of the district areas. As an outcome of the detailed MCDA analysis, a GIS based vulnerability index has been developed for the districts. Based on the vulnerability index, eight districts in Punjab and Sindh are selected for the implementation of the project.