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COVID-19: Channels of Transmission to Food and Agriculture

The COVID-19-induced pandemic affects the entire food system. It exerts a symmetric, but asynchronous shock on global and national food systems. Its impacts will affect both supply and
demand channels, but they will be felt at different points in time. They will affect all elements of the food system, from primary supply, to processing, to trade as well as national and international logistics systems, to intermediate and final demand. It also affects factor markets, namely labour and capital, and intermediate inputs of production. The channels of transmission into food and agricultural demand include numerous macroeconomic factors, notably swings in exchange rates, in energy and credit markets, and, most importantly, the expected surge in unemployment and the contractions in overall economic activity.

We have assessed the exposure of countries to a selected number of these channels of transmission. We quantify the impacts of agricultural factor markets, trade and final demand. We
present more qualitatively the effects of credit markets, energy markets or possible disruptions in the supply chains and the various choke points therein.

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